Which critical metals does your revenue depend on?
Exposure Scan traces your products down to the refiner and owner of gallium, germanium, indium, tellurium, tungsten and rare earths — and sizes the revenue at risk if Chinese supply stops. Built from public data first, structured for Article 24 of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act.
Supply is now licensed — and named European companies are cut off
China has moved from price to permission. Each step below narrows what European manufacturers can buy, and since 2026 some of them can buy nothing at all.
Export licences required for gallium and germanium.
Antimony added to export control.
Tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium follow.
HENSOLDT placed on China's export-control list.
Fourteen EU entities listed, including Rheinmetall, III-V Lab, VIGO Photonics and Opticoelectron.
Sources: MOFCOM announcements as reported by Thomson Reuters and Xinhua; USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026.
What an Exposure Scan tells you
Most bills of materials stop at the supplier you pay. The risk sits three or four tiers further up, at a refinery you have never heard of. We follow each component to that point and answer three questions.
- Where are we exposed?
- A supply-chain map for each critical metal: component, substrate or alloy, refiner, owner and country, with every undisclosed tier flagged rather than guessed.
- How much revenue is at risk?
- Dependent revenue by product line, and the revenue lost in a three-month and a six-month disruption, net of stock and qualified alternatives.
- What do we do about it?
- Non-Chinese suppliers already qualified or in qualification, stock targets, offtake options — and a record that fits the Article 24 stress-test duty.
| Manufacturer | Revenue tied to controlled metals | At risk, 3 months | At risk, 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensors and electronic warfare | 50% | 5.2% | 14.5% |
| Land systems and munitions | 23% | 2.3% | 6.6% |
| Power and grid equipment | 8% | 0.8% | 2.1% |
Share of annual revenue. Estimates; method and sources in our November 2026 analysis.
Services and prices
| Service | Scope | Time | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preliminary scan | Your top two exposures, from public data | 2–3 days | Free |
| Exposure Scan, focused | Up to three product lines | 2–3 weeks | €15,000 |
| Exposure Scan, standard | One business segment, full bill of materials | 3–4 weeks | €25,000 |
| Exposure Scan, group | Several segments or sites | 4–6 weeks | €40,000 |
| Due-diligence pack | Exposure evidence for an investor, lender or grant application | 1–2 weeks | €15,000 |
| Offtake pack | Buyer map, offtake terms and revenue stress test for a project promoter | 3–6 weeks | €20,000–60,000 |
| Watchtower | Monthly alerts on export controls, listings, prices and supplier events | Ongoing | €24,000 a year |
Prices exclude VAT. The first three clients who agree to be named as a reference receive 20% off; no client data is ever disclosed.
How we work
- Preliminary scan. From public sources we identify your two largest exposures and send them to you at no cost.
- Scoping call. Thirty minutes to agree products, sites and the data you can share.
- Full scan. We work on your bill of materials under NDA and a GDPR data-processing agreement, and delete your data after delivery.
- Report and monitoring. A written report with the supply-chain maps and scenarios; optional monthly Watchtower alerts.
The method
Supply risk follows the EU critical-raw-materials methodology of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre: concentration of processing and ownership, export restrictions and by-product dependence. Vulnerability adds how critical the part is, how hard it is to substitute, and how closely the chain is tied to China.
Every figure is linked to its source. Where a company does not publish a number, the estimate is marked as an estimate and its basis is stated. Aggregator and AI-written sources are never the only basis for a key claim.
Not investment or legal advice, and not a CRMA compliance opinion.
November 2026
Europe's quiet exposure to gallium, germanium and antimony
Prices outside China have run to seven times the Chinese level. We look at where the dependence sits, what it costs three European manufacturers, and the five checks every board should run before the next licence decision.
About
Mineral Exposure is an independent analytics practice founded by Anatoly Sergeev. Trained as a radio engineer in radar and automated control systems, he spent his career building engineering and quantitative risk systems, and now applies the same discipline to critical-metal supply chains.
We are not a trader, broker or supplier of metals. We do not sell positions, take commissions from suppliers, or share one client's data with another.
Start with a free preliminary scan
Tell us your company and main product lines. We return your two largest exposures within three working days.
anatoly.sergeev@mineralexposure.com
+381 62 976 3534
Anatoly Sergeev, Founder and Lead Analyst. Novi Sad, Serbia; working across Europe.